LCD TV panel prices are expected to continue to rise in May

The market research agency recently released a report that pointed out that in the second quarter, panel demand has changed, and some overseas regional terminal sales represented by emerging markets have shown a slowdown. In the second quarter, the global TV market panel stocking demand remained relatively strong, but structural differentiation appeared. The price of small and medium-sized panels increased excessively in the previous period, which restrained terminal demand.

Zhang Hong, research director of the TV division of Qunzhi Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from China Securities News on April 26 that looking forward to the trend of panel prices in the second half of the year, we need to observe changes in terminal demand and the supply of materials such as driver ICs. The impact on the panel market and the impact of related markets such as IT and mobile terminals are used to determine supply and demand and turning points.

Panel prices continue to rise

Qunzhi Consulting estimates that the supply-demand ratio of the global TV panel market in the second quarter was 2.8% (the balance between supply and demand was 5%). Among them, the supply of medium and large-sized panels of 50 inches and above is still in short supply, and the supply and demand of small-sized panels are balanced. It is expected that the panel prices of all mainstream sizes will maintain a large increase in April, and the price increase will be divided in May.

Specifically, Qunzhi Consulting expects that 32-inch LCD panels will increase by US$6 in April. It is expected that as demand drops in May, the price increase will be significantly narrowed to about US$2; 39.5-inch-43 Inch maintains an increase of more than $5, and the increase in May has significantly narrowed; the average price of 50 inches is expected to rise by $11 in April and the increase in May is $6; the average price of 55 inches is expected to rise by $12 in April, and the increase in May will remain at $5. The larger increase above. In terms of large-size panels, supply and demand continue to be tight, and it is expected to maintain a relatively large increase of about US$10 from April to May.

More than that, other LCD application scenarios still maintain the momentum of price increases. Qunzhi Consulting believes that the shortage of driver IC supply and the suspension of SDC supply will continue to have a significant impact on the global display panel market. In March-April, brand and second-tier market panel prices have shown an increasing trend. The second-tier market is particularly obvious. The supply of certain specifications in the second-tier market is obviously insufficient and prices have stalled, resulting in a shrinking trend in the terminal ultra-low-end market. It is expected that the global monitor panel supply and demand will remain significantly tight in the second quarter, and the prices of mainstream specifications will maintain a large increase.

In terms of notebook panels, Qunzhi Consulting pointed out that entering the second quarter, the demand for home office and education bidding brought by the epidemic has not diminished, domestic and overseas market demand remains strong, terminal inventory is low, and brands are stocking Positively, the supply and demand of notebook panels continue to be tight, and the cost increase caused by the increase in driver IC prices is superimposed. It is predicted that the price of notebook panels will continue to maintain a large increase in April-May, and the increase in some specifications will increase.

Domestic manufacturers control pricing power

It is understood that from the past industry development process, panel is a cyclical industry. In the future, as the industry's production capacity continues to concentrate on leading companies, market competition gradually becomes more rational, and the industry will gradually enter the track of healthy development.

The global LCD leader BOE stated in a recent survey summary that the background and process characteristics of this round of panel price recovery are different from previous cyclical increases. The semiconductor display industry will go out of cyclical in the future. Characteristics, but it will become an industry with certain growth. There are four reasons:

First, this round of panel price increase is due to market reasons, supply reasons, technological progress reasons, high-end products, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on consumption characteristics. There are deep internal reasons. And externally driven, this factor will still exist in the future.

Second, the obvious feature of this round of price increases is the agglomeration effect of leading enterprises. All links in the supply chain, manufacturing end, and consumer end are obviously moving closer to the leading enterprises. When the three occupy more than 60% of the market, the stability of the development of the industry will be significantly enhanced.

Thirdly, in the next three years, the increase in production capacity of the semiconductor display industry and the production capacity consumption due to factors such as technology upgrades, product upgrades, capacity withdrawal, and market application expansion will be basically the same, and there will be no obvious Redundant capacity.

Fourth, after the characteristics of industry development turn into growth characteristics, price fluctuations will still exist, but the range of fluctuations will be narrowed, the time period will be lengthened, and the elasticity of the recovery of leading companies will be significantly enhanced .

The other domestic panel manufacturing giant TCL Technology (9.150, -0.08, -0.87%) said that the overall industry supply side growth rate has slowed down sharply, the supply and demand structure remains stable, and the option of future expansion is the leading manufacturer It is even more advantageous because there are already very strict restrictions on new LCD investment. (China Securities Journal-China Securities Network)